#606: merge from master

TODO.md

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 # TODO
 
 - https://github.com/sledilnik/website/issues/606
-    - how is doubling calculated?
-        - see municipalities
+    - calculate doubling time of active cases
+    - use this value to show the projection
     - show previous week, current, next 7, 14 days
 
 

src/locales/sl.json

@@ -780,7 +780,7 @@
             "oneDay": "En dan",
             "oneWeek": "En teden",
             "oneMonth": "En mesec",
-            "ifExpGrowth": "Če bi primeri naraščali eksponentno s podvajanjem na 7 dni, potem bi lahko pričakovali:",
+            "ifExpGrowth": "Če bi se okužba širila eksponentno s takšnim podvajanjem, kot je sedaj (na {0} dni), potem bi lahko pričakovali:",
             "today": "Danes",
             "inOneWeek": "Čez en teden",
             "inTwoWeeks": "Čez dva tedna",

src/visualizations/MunicipalitiesChart.fs

@@ -136,7 +136,7 @@ let init (queryObj : obj) (data : RegionsData) : State * Cmd<Msg> =
                 if activeCases.IsSome && activeCases.Value >= 5
                 then
                     dp
-                    |> Seq.map (fun dp -> {| Date = dp.Date ; Value = dp.ActiveCases |})
+                    |> Seq.map (fun dp -> (dp.Date,dp.ActiveCases))
                     |> Seq.toList
                     |> Utils.findDoublingTime
                 else None

src/visualizations/SpreadChart.fs

@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ module SpreadChart
 
 open System
 open Elmish
+open Fable.Core
 open Feliz
 open Feliz.ElmishComponents
 open Browser
@@ -213,7 +214,21 @@ let renderChartOptions scaleType state dispatch =
     |}
 
 let renderExplainer (data: StatsData) =
-    let curPositive, curHospitalized =
+    // calculate the current doubling time
+
+    // get the array of active cases by days
+    let activeByDays =
+        data
+        |> List.map(fun dp -> (dp.Date, dp.Cases.Active))
+
+    let currentDoublingTime = activeByDays |> Utils.findDoublingTime
+
+    let multiplicationForDaysFromNow daysFromNow =
+        match currentDoublingTime with
+        | Some doublingTime -> Math.Pow(2., daysFromNow / doublingTime) |> Some
+        | None -> None
+
+    let curActive, curHospitalized =
         data
         |> List.rev
         |> List.choose (fun dp ->
@@ -224,32 +239,57 @@ let renderExplainer (data: StatsData) =
         |> List.head
         |> fun (p, h) -> (p,h)
 
-    let box (title: string) doublings positive hospitalized =
-        Html.div [
-            prop.className "box"
-            prop.children [
-                Html.h3 title
-                Html.p [
-                    match doublings with
-                    | 0 -> ""
-                    | _ ->
-                        let times = 1<<<doublings
-                        let timesAsManyText = chartText "timesAsMany"
-                        sprintf "%d%s" times timesAsManyText
-                    |> Html.span
+    let box (title: string) weekFromNow =
+        let multiplication =
+            weekFromNow * 7
+            |> float
+            |> multiplicationForDaysFromNow
+
+        match multiplication with
+        | Some multiplication ->
+            Html.div [
+                prop.className "box"
+                prop.children [
+                    Html.h3 title
+                    Html.p [
+                        match weekFromNow with
+                        | 0 -> ""
+                        | _ ->
+                            let timesAsMany = multiplication - 1.
+                            let timesAsManyRounded =
+                                timesAsMany
+                                |> Utils.formatTo1DecimalWithTrailingZero
+                            let timesAsManyText = chartText "timesAsMany"
+                            sprintf "%s%s" timesAsManyRounded timesAsManyText
+                        |> Html.span
+                    ]
+
+                    let activeCasesProjection =
+                        (float curActive * multiplication)
+                        |> Math.Round
+                        |> int
+
+                    let hospitalizedCasesProjection =
+                        (float curHospitalized * multiplication)
+                        |> Math.Round
+                        |> int
+
+                    Html.div [ Html.h4 (string activeCasesProjection)
+                               Html.p (chartText "activeCases") ]
+                    Html.div [ Html.h4 (string hospitalizedCasesProjection)
+                               Html.p (chartText "hospitalized") ]
                 ]
-                Html.div [ Html.h4 (string positive)
-                           Html.p (chartText "activeCases") ]
-                Html.div [ Html.h4 (string hospitalized)
-                           Html.p (chartText "hospitalized") ]
             ]
-        ]
+        | None -> Html.div []
 
     Html.div [
         prop.className "exponential-explainer"
         prop.style [ (Interop.mkStyle "width" "100%"); style.position.absolute ]
         prop.children [
-            yield Html.h1 (chartText "ifExpGrowth")
+            let explanationTextFormat = chartText "ifExpGrowth"
+            let explanationText =
+                String.Format(explanationTextFormat, currentDoublingTime)
+            yield Html.h1 explanationText
             yield Html.div [
                 prop.className "container"
                 prop.children [
@@ -259,11 +299,8 @@ let renderExplainer (data: StatsData) =
                           chartText "inTwoWeeks", 2
                           chartText "inThreeWeeks", 3
                           chartText "inFourWeeks", 4 ]
-                        |> List.map (fun (title, doublings) ->
-                            box title doublings
-                                (curPositive <<< doublings)
-                                (curHospitalized <<< doublings)
-                        )
+                        |> List.map (fun (title, weekFromNow) ->
+                            box title weekFromNow)
                 ]
             ]
         ]

src/visualizations/Utils.fs

@@ -66,22 +66,25 @@ let calculateDoublingTime (v1 : {| Day : int ; PositiveTests : int |}) (v2 : {|
         if value < 0.0 then None
         else Some value
 
-let findDoublingTime (values : {| Date : DateTime ; Value : int option |} list) =
+let findDoublingTime (values: (DateTime * int option) list) =
     let reversedValues =
         values
-        |> List.choose (fun dp ->
-            match dp.Value with
+        |> List.choose (fun (date, value) ->
+            match value with
             | None -> None
-            | Some value -> Some {| Date = dp.Date ; Value = value |}
+            | Some value -> Some (date, value)
         )
         |> List.rev
 
     match reversedValues with
-    | head :: tail ->
-        match tail |> List.tryFind (fun dp ->
-            float head.Value / 2. >= float dp.Value) with
+    | (headDate, headValue) :: tail ->
+        let halfValue = float headValue / 2.
+
+        match tail |> List.tryFind (fun (_, value) ->
+            float value <= halfValue) with
         | None -> None
-        | Some halfValue -> (head.Date - halfValue.Date).TotalDays |> Some
+        | Some (halfValuePointDate, _) ->
+            (headDate - halfValuePointDate).TotalDays |> Some
     | _ -> None
 
 let classes (classTuples: seq<bool * string>) =