Cluster Prediction Aggregation.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 104,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Donald Trump</th>\n",
       "      <th>John Kasich</th>\n",
       "      <th>Ted Cruz</th>\n",
       "      <th>fips</th>\n",
       "      <th>sum</th>\n",
       "      <th>winner</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.454527</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.145770</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.399703</td>\n",
       "      <td>6003</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.760416</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.560589</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.124399</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.315012</td>\n",
       "      <td>6005</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.746670</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.445578</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.156094</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.398327</td>\n",
       "      <td>6007</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.736957</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.546832</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.131453</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.321715</td>\n",
       "      <td>6009</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.772235</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.579313</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.152888</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.267799</td>\n",
       "      <td>6017</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.752413</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.416082</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.134925</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.448993</td>\n",
       "      <td>6021</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.765223</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ted Cruz</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.469947</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.138802</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.391250</td>\n",
       "      <td>6023</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.770683</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.489365</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.141356</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.369279</td>\n",
       "      <td>6027</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.739269</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.534219</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.117192</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.348589</td>\n",
       "      <td>6043</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.792585</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.462561</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.128679</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.408760</td>\n",
       "      <td>6045</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.777131</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.491443</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.141132</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.367425</td>\n",
       "      <td>6051</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.731566</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.515153</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.151868</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.332979</td>\n",
       "      <td>6053</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.757465</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.527204</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.199282</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.273514</td>\n",
       "      <td>6057</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.676717</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.500400</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.213882</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.285718</td>\n",
       "      <td>6061</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.667140</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.487300</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.150782</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.361919</td>\n",
       "      <td>6063</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.762923</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.505984</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.166801</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.327215</td>\n",
       "      <td>6065</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.842200</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.447961</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.200903</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.351136</td>\n",
       "      <td>6067</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.710238</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.530931</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.128108</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.340961</td>\n",
       "      <td>6069</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.805938</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.509167</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.129011</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.361823</td>\n",
       "      <td>6071</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.810010</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.477469</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.133766</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.388765</td>\n",
       "      <td>6089</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.744769</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>20</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.440673</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.132982</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.426345</td>\n",
       "      <td>6091</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.776398</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.539066</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.180066</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.280868</td>\n",
       "      <td>6095</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.781222</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>22</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.440543</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.153625</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.405832</td>\n",
       "      <td>6105</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.806220</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>23</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.481758</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.132288</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.385954</td>\n",
       "      <td>6109</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.767360</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>24</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.482289</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.152646</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.365065</td>\n",
       "      <td>6113</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.684591</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.421731</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.252941</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.325328</td>\n",
       "      <td>9003</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.701744</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>26</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.458923</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.264647</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.276430</td>\n",
       "      <td>9005</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.636737</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>27</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.486325</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.210562</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.303113</td>\n",
       "      <td>9007</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.584367</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>28</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.476455</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.220651</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.302894</td>\n",
       "      <td>9009</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.646672</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>29</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.475364</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.208436</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.316200</td>\n",
       "      <td>9011</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.674892</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>275</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.401453</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.199669</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.398878</td>\n",
       "      <td>55071</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.757357</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>276</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.389905</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.159078</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.451017</td>\n",
       "      <td>55073</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.736591</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ted Cruz</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>277</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.522186</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.101280</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.376534</td>\n",
       "      <td>55077</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.802301</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>278</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.465034</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.210245</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.324722</td>\n",
       "      <td>55079</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.754502</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>279</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.442873</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.118793</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.438333</td>\n",
       "      <td>55081</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.733111</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>280</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.530912</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.082638</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.386450</td>\n",
       "      <td>55083</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.699383</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>281</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.478365</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.117508</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.404127</td>\n",
       "      <td>55085</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.663447</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>282</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.389114</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.168370</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.442516</td>\n",
       "      <td>55087</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.701168</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ted Cruz</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>283</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.467171</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.237128</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.295701</td>\n",
       "      <td>55091</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.838908</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>284</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.436536</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.206948</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.356516</td>\n",
       "      <td>55093</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.751411</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>285</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.517111</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.075121</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.407768</td>\n",
       "      <td>55095</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.731331</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>286</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.342001</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.191750</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.466249</td>\n",
       "      <td>55097</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.759206</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ted Cruz</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>287</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.462207</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.215677</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.322116</td>\n",
       "      <td>55101</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.825679</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>288</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.485897</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.129557</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.384547</td>\n",
       "      <td>55103</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.751008</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>289</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.508035</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.088123</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.403842</td>\n",
       "      <td>55105</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.715125</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>290</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.417795</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.196511</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.385695</td>\n",
       "      <td>55109</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.754915</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>291</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.481744</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.116130</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.402127</td>\n",
       "      <td>55111</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.766261</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>292</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.469980</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.209794</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.320226</td>\n",
       "      <td>55113</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.871039</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>293</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.468773</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.085879</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.445348</td>\n",
       "      <td>55115</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.776346</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>294</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.339098</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.275435</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.385467</td>\n",
       "      <td>55117</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.794538</td>\n",
       "      <td>Ted Cruz</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>295</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.427432</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.222355</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.350214</td>\n",
       "      <td>55119</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.824633</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>296</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.424191</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.184055</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.391754</td>\n",
       "      <td>55121</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.792023</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>297</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.424767</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.237572</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.337661</td>\n",
       "      <td>55123</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.855289</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>298</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.470477</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.216391</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.313131</td>\n",
       "      <td>55125</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.804218</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>299</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.479476</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.186345</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.334179</td>\n",
       "      <td>55127</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.822202</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>300</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.534449</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.134967</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.330584</td>\n",
       "      <td>55129</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.761761</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>301</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.429170</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.168168</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.402662</td>\n",
       "      <td>55135</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.795673</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>302</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.527143</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.081208</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.391649</td>\n",
       "      <td>55137</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.737390</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>303</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.353067</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.321824</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.325109</td>\n",
       "      <td>55139</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.860403</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>304</th>\n",
       "      <td>0.415480</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.229746</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.354775</td>\n",
       "      <td>55141</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.786216</td>\n",
       "      <td>Donald Trump</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>858 rows × 6 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "     Donald Trump  John Kasich  Ted Cruz   fips       sum        winner\n",
       "0        0.454527     0.145770  0.399703   6003  0.760416  Donald Trump\n",
       "1        0.560589     0.124399  0.315012   6005  0.746670  Donald Trump\n",
       "2        0.445578     0.156094  0.398327   6007  0.736957  Donald Trump\n",
       "3        0.546832     0.131453  0.321715   6009  0.772235  Donald Trump\n",
       "4        0.579313     0.152888  0.267799   6017  0.752413  Donald Trump\n",
       "5        0.416082     0.134925  0.448993   6021  0.765223      Ted Cruz\n",
       "6        0.469947     0.138802  0.391250   6023  0.770683  Donald Trump\n",
       "7        0.489365     0.141356  0.369279   6027  0.739269  Donald Trump\n",
       "8        0.534219     0.117192  0.348589   6043  0.792585  Donald Trump\n",
       "9        0.462561     0.128679  0.408760   6045  0.777131  Donald Trump\n",
       "10       0.491443     0.141132  0.367425   6051  0.731566  Donald Trump\n",
       "11       0.515153     0.151868  0.332979   6053  0.757465  Donald Trump\n",
       "12       0.527204     0.199282  0.273514   6057  0.676717  Donald Trump\n",
       "13       0.500400     0.213882  0.285718   6061  0.667140  Donald Trump\n",
       "14       0.487300     0.150782  0.361919   6063  0.762923  Donald Trump\n",
       "15       0.505984     0.166801  0.327215   6065  0.842200  Donald Trump\n",
       "16       0.447961     0.200903  0.351136   6067  0.710238  Donald Trump\n",
       "17       0.530931     0.128108  0.340961   6069  0.805938  Donald Trump\n",
       "18       0.509167     0.129011  0.361823   6071  0.810010  Donald Trump\n",
       "19       0.477469     0.133766  0.388765   6089  0.744769  Donald Trump\n",
       "20       0.440673     0.132982  0.426345   6091  0.776398  Donald Trump\n",
       "21       0.539066     0.180066  0.280868   6095  0.781222  Donald Trump\n",
       "22       0.440543     0.153625  0.405832   6105  0.806220  Donald Trump\n",
       "23       0.481758     0.132288  0.385954   6109  0.767360  Donald Trump\n",
       "24       0.482289     0.152646  0.365065   6113  0.684591  Donald Trump\n",
       "25       0.421731     0.252941  0.325328   9003  0.701744  Donald Trump\n",
       "26       0.458923     0.264647  0.276430   9005  0.636737  Donald Trump\n",
       "27       0.486325     0.210562  0.303113   9007  0.584367  Donald Trump\n",
       "28       0.476455     0.220651  0.302894   9009  0.646672  Donald Trump\n",
       "29       0.475364     0.208436  0.316200   9011  0.674892  Donald Trump\n",
       "..            ...          ...       ...    ...       ...           ...\n",
       "275      0.401453     0.199669  0.398878  55071  0.757357  Donald Trump\n",
       "276      0.389905     0.159078  0.451017  55073  0.736591      Ted Cruz\n",
       "277      0.522186     0.101280  0.376534  55077  0.802301  Donald Trump\n",
       "278      0.465034     0.210245  0.324722  55079  0.754502  Donald Trump\n",
       "279      0.442873     0.118793  0.438333  55081  0.733111  Donald Trump\n",
       "280      0.530912     0.082638  0.386450  55083  0.699383  Donald Trump\n",
       "281      0.478365     0.117508  0.404127  55085  0.663447  Donald Trump\n",
       "282      0.389114     0.168370  0.442516  55087  0.701168      Ted Cruz\n",
       "283      0.467171     0.237128  0.295701  55091  0.838908  Donald Trump\n",
       "284      0.436536     0.206948  0.356516  55093  0.751411  Donald Trump\n",
       "285      0.517111     0.075121  0.407768  55095  0.731331  Donald Trump\n",
       "286      0.342001     0.191750  0.466249  55097  0.759206      Ted Cruz\n",
       "287      0.462207     0.215677  0.322116  55101  0.825679  Donald Trump\n",
       "288      0.485897     0.129557  0.384547  55103  0.751008  Donald Trump\n",
       "289      0.508035     0.088123  0.403842  55105  0.715125  Donald Trump\n",
       "290      0.417795     0.196511  0.385695  55109  0.754915  Donald Trump\n",
       "291      0.481744     0.116130  0.402127  55111  0.766261  Donald Trump\n",
       "292      0.469980     0.209794  0.320226  55113  0.871039  Donald Trump\n",
       "293      0.468773     0.085879  0.445348  55115  0.776346  Donald Trump\n",
       "294      0.339098     0.275435  0.385467  55117  0.794538      Ted Cruz\n",
       "295      0.427432     0.222355  0.350214  55119  0.824633  Donald Trump\n",
       "296      0.424191     0.184055  0.391754  55121  0.792023  Donald Trump\n",
       "297      0.424767     0.237572  0.337661  55123  0.855289  Donald Trump\n",
       "298      0.470477     0.216391  0.313131  55125  0.804218  Donald Trump\n",
       "299      0.479476     0.186345  0.334179  55127  0.822202  Donald Trump\n",
       "300      0.534449     0.134967  0.330584  55129  0.761761  Donald Trump\n",
       "301      0.429170     0.168168  0.402662  55135  0.795673  Donald Trump\n",
       "302      0.527143     0.081208  0.391649  55137  0.737390  Donald Trump\n",
       "303      0.353067     0.321824  0.325109  55139  0.860403  Donald Trump\n",
       "304      0.415480     0.229746  0.354775  55141  0.786216  Donald Trump\n",
       "\n",
       "[858 rows x 6 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 104,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "\n",
    "list_of_clusters = [\"cluster_0\", \"cluster_1\", \"cluster_2\", \"cluster_3\"]\n",
    "\n",
    "allcounties = pd.read_csv('notebooks/clusterResults_0.csv')\n",
    "\n",
    "cols_to_norm = ['Donald Trump','John Kasich', 'Ted Cruz']\n",
    "allcounties[\"sum\"] = allcounties[cols_to_norm].sum(axis=1)\n",
    "allcounties[cols_to_norm] = allcounties[cols_to_norm].div(allcounties[\"sum\"], axis=\"index\")\n",
    "# allcounties[\"sum\"] = allcounties[cols_to_norm].sum(axis=1)\n",
    "allcounties[\"winner\"] = allcounties[cols_to_norm].idxmax(axis=1)\n",
    "\n",
    "allcounties\n",
    "\n",
    "for i in list_of_clusters[1:]:\n",
    "    cluster_temp = i\n",
    "    cluster_temp = pd.read_csv('notebooks/clusterResults_'+ i[-1] +'.csv')\n",
    "\n",
    "    cols_to_norm = ['Donald Trump','John Kasich', 'Ted Cruz']\n",
    "    cluster_temp[\"sum\"] = cluster_temp[cols_to_norm].sum(axis=1)\n",
    "    cluster_temp[cols_to_norm] = cluster_temp[cols_to_norm].div(cluster_temp[\"sum\"], axis=\"index\")\n",
    "#     cluster_temp[\"sum\"] = cluster_temp[cols_to_norm].sum(axis=1)\n",
    "    cluster_temp[\"winner\"] = cluster_temp[cols_to_norm].idxmax(axis=1)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    allcounties = pd.concat([allcounties, cluster_temp])\n",
    "\n",
    "allcounties.to_csv('visualization/county_predictions.csv')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 118,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "county_pop_2012 = pd.read_csv(\"notebooks/county_facts_with_2012_winner.csv\")\n",
    "county_pop_2012 = county_pop_2012[[\"fips\", \"Paul\", \"Gingrich\", \"Romney\", \"Santorum\", \"state_abbreviation\"]]\n",
    "county_pop_2012[\"population\"] = county_pop_2012[[\"Paul\", \"Gingrich\", \"Romney\", \"Santorum\"]].sum(axis=1)\n",
    "county_pop_2012 = county_pop_2012[[\"fips\", \"population\", \"state_abbreviation\"]]\n",
    "county_pop_percentage = pd.merge(allcounties, county_pop_2012, how=\"left\", on=\"fips\")\n",
    "\n",
    "county_pop_percentage[cols_to_norm] = county_pop_percentage[cols_to_norm].apply(lambda x: x*county_pop_percentage[\"population\"], axis=0)\n",
    "county_pop_percentage = county_pop_percentage.groupby(\"state_abbreviation\").sum()\n",
    "# county_pop_percentage = county_pop_percentage.groupby(\"state_abbreviation\").sum()[cols_to_norm].idxmax(axis=1)\n",
    "county_pop_percentage[cols_to_norm] = county_pop_percentage[cols_to_norm].apply(lambda x: x/county_pop_percentage[\"population\"], axis=0)\n",
    "# county_pop_percentage.to_csv(\"predicted_results\")\n",
    "cpp = county_pop_percentage[cols_to_norm].T[[\"CT\", \"MD\", \"DE\", \"PA\", \"RI\"]]\n",
    "cpp.to_csv(\"formatted_predicted_results.csv\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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