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add information on rate of change (such as doubling time) #69

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poldrack opened this issue Mar 19, 2020 · 4 comments
Open

add information on rate of change (such as doubling time) #69

poldrack opened this issue Mar 19, 2020 · 4 comments

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@poldrack
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Currently, in order to compare the rates of change between countries one has to eyeball them. It could be useful to provide a measure such as doubling time (in days) to help better compare rates. This could be shown as fitted rates for each day with observed data, or as the estimated rate for the projection.

@GaelVaroquaux
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The growth rate is computed in the modeling.py script. We should compute the doubling time from it, and store it them in the pickle. After this, we should load them in get_all_data and show them in a the hover of the timeseries plots.

@emmanuelle
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do you think it should appear in the timeseries plot or in the map / table? Both are interesting, in the timeseries what is nice is that you can see if the doubling time changes but it may be hard for people to relate to a doubling time one week ago. We can do both of course.

@poldrack
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poldrack commented Mar 23, 2020 via email

@GaelVaroquaux
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Now that we can only plot the confirmed cases and not the active cases, this because awkward for the countries which have already flattened the curve.

The estimated growth rates are on https://covid19-dash.github.io/modeling_short.html but I hesitate to show them, as they cannot really be interpreted as growth rates.

Maybe an analysis on the new cases, as mentioned #91

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