Basic_models_1.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from pandas import read_csv\n",
    "from matplotlib import pyplot as plt\n",
    "\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "\n",
    "from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split\n",
    "\n",
    "import statistics\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller, kpss, acf\n",
    "from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARIMA\n",
    "import pmdarima as pm"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "plt.rcParams.update({'figure.figsize':(9,7), 'figure.dpi':120})"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []\n",
    "def forecast_accuracy(forecast, actual):\n",
    "    mape = np.mean(np.abs(forecast - actual)/np.abs(actual))  # MAPE\n",
    "    mape_list.append(mape)\n",
    "    me = np.mean(forecast - actual)             # ME\n",
    "    mae = np.mean(np.abs(forecast - actual))    # MAE\n",
    "    mpe = np.mean((forecast - actual)/actual)   # MPE\n",
    "    rmse = np.mean((forecast - actual)**2)**.5  # RMSE\n",
    "    rmse_list.append(rmse)\n",
    "    corr = np.corrcoef(forecast, actual)[0,1]   # corr\n",
    "    return({'mape':mape, 'me':me, 'mae': mae, \n",
    "            'mpe': mpe, 'rmse':rmse, \n",
    "            'corr':corr})"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Часть 1 - 1й датасет"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 1s timestamp"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 111,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(22)]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 112,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P2/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P3/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q1/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q2/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q3/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U1/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U2/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U3/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 113,
   "metadata": {
    "jupyter": {
     "source_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def prepare_data(df, num_elements=50):\n",
    "    new_data = []\n",
    "    length = df.shape[0]\n",
    "    current_index = 0\n",
    "    step = int(0.2 * num_elements)\n",
    "    while(current_index <= length - num_elements):\n",
    "        new_data.append(df[current_index:current_index+num_elements])\n",
    "        current_index += step\n",
    "    return new_data"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 114,
   "metadata": {
    "jupyter": {
     "source_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p2]\n",
    "p2 = sum(p2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p3]\n",
    "p3 = sum(p3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q1]\n",
    "q1 = sum(q1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q2]\n",
    "q2 = sum(q2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q3]\n",
    "q3 = sum(q3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u1]\n",
    "u1 = sum(u1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u2]\n",
    "u2 = sum(u2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u3]\n",
    "u3 = sum(u3, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 115,
   "metadata": {
    "jupyter": {
     "source_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "[2, 3, 4, 5, 6]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print([i for i in range(2, 7)])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 116,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def train_arima(df, index=0, max_m=2):\n",
    "#     train, test = train_test_split(df, test_size=0.2, shuffle=False)\n",
    "    train = df[:-10]\n",
    "    test = df[-10:]\n",
    "    best_model = pm.auto_arima(train.values, start_p=0, start_q=0,\n",
    "                               test='adf',       # use adftest to find optimal 'd'\n",
    "                               max_p=3, max_q=3, # maximum p and q\n",
    "                               m=1,              # frequency of series\n",
    "                               d=None,           # let model determine 'd'\n",
    "                               seasonal=True,   # Seasonality\n",
    "                               start_P=0, \n",
    "                               D=1, \n",
    "                               trace=False,\n",
    "                               error_action='ignore',  \n",
    "                               suppress_warnings=True, \n",
    "                               stepwise=True)\n",
    "    for i in range(2, max_m):\n",
    "        model = pm.auto_arima(train.values, start_p=0, start_q=0,\n",
    "                          test='adf',       # use adftest to find optimal 'd'\n",
    "                          max_p=3, max_q=3, # maximum p and q\n",
    "                          m=i,              # frequency of series\n",
    "                          d=None,           # let model determine 'd'\n",
    "                          seasonal=True,   # Seasonality\n",
    "                          start_P=0, \n",
    "                          D=1, \n",
    "                          trace=False,\n",
    "                          error_action='ignore',  \n",
    "                          suppress_warnings=True, \n",
    "                          stepwise=True)\n",
    "        \n",
    "        # Find the best model with MSE\n",
    "        if np.mean((model.predict(n_periods=test.shape[0]) - test.values)**2) < np.mean((best_model.predict(n_periods=test.shape[0]) - test.values)**2):\n",
    "            best_model = model\n",
    "#     print(\"Data \" + str(index))\n",
    "#     print(forecast_accuracy(model.predict(n_periods=test.shape[0]), test.values))\n",
    "    forecast_accuracy(best_model.predict(n_periods=test.shape[0]), test.values)\n",
    "#     print(\"\\n\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 117,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 118,
   "metadata": {
    "jupyter": {
     "source_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.022022992750171097\n",
      "15.069444416590926\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# train_multi = pd.concat([p1[0], p2[0], p3[0], q1[0], q2[0], q3[0], u1[0]], axis=1)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# train, test = train_test_split(train_multi, test_size=0.2, shuffle=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# from statsmodels.tsa.statespace.varmax import VARMAX\n",
    "\n",
    "# model = VARMAX(train, order = (1,1))\n",
    "# model_fit = model.fit()\n",
    "# print(forecast_accuracy(model_fit.forecast(steps=test.shape[0]), test.values))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 38,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# model_fit.forecast(steps=test.shape[0])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# model = ARIMA(train, order=(0, 1, 0))  \n",
    "# fitted = model.fit(disp=-1)  \n",
    "\n",
    "# # Forecast\n",
    "# fc, se, conf = fitted.forecast(len(test), alpha=0.05)  # 95% conf\n",
    "\n",
    "# # Make as pandas series\n",
    "# fc_series = pd.Series(fc, index=test.index)\n",
    "# lower_series = pd.Series(conf[:, 0], index=test.index)\n",
    "# upper_series = pd.Series(conf[:, 1], index=test.index)\n",
    "# print(fitted.summary())\n",
    "\n",
    "# # Plot\n",
    "# plt.figure(figsize=(12,5), dpi=100)\n",
    "# plt.plot(train, label='training')\n",
    "# plt.plot(test, label='actual')\n",
    "# plt.plot(fc_series, label='forecast')\n",
    "# plt.fill_between(lower_series.index, lower_series, upper_series, \n",
    "#                  color='k', alpha=.15)\n",
    "# plt.title('Forecast vs Actuals')\n",
    "# plt.legend(loc='upper left', fontsize=8)\n",
    "# plt.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 1.5s timestamp"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(141)]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 33,
   "metadata": {
    "jupyter": {
     "source_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P2/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P3/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q1/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q2/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q3/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U1/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U2/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U3/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "metadata": {
    "jupyter": {
     "source_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p2]\n",
    "p2 = sum(p2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p3]\n",
    "p3 = sum(p3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q1]\n",
    "q1 = sum(q1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q2]\n",
    "q2 = sum(q2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q3]\n",
    "q3 = sum(q3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u1]\n",
    "u1 = sum(u1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u2]\n",
    "u2 = sum(u2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u3]\n",
    "u3 = sum(u3, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1893: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ma)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1893: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ma)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1893: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ma)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/sarimax.py:1886: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in reciprocal\n",
      "  return np.roots(self.polynomial_reduced_ar)**-1\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/statsmodels/regression/linear_model.py:1620: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in double_scalars\n",
      "  return np.dot(wresid, wresid) / self.df_resid\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.12269054258899613\n",
      "220.7941096257094\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 2s timestamp"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 203,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(902)]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 204,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P2/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P3/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q1/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q2/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q3/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U1/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U2/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U3/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 205,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p2]\n",
    "p2 = sum(p2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p3]\n",
    "p3 = sum(p3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q1]\n",
    "q1 = sum(q1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q2]\n",
    "q2 = sum(q2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q3]\n",
    "q3 = sum(q3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u1]\n",
    "u1 = sum(u1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u2]\n",
    "u2 = sum(u2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u3]\n",
    "u3 = sum(u3, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 206,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 207,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.06731475198331945\n",
      "71.88725322363149\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 5s timestamp"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 208,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(19)]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 209,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P2/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P3/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q1/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q2/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q3/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U1/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U2/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U3/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 210,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p2]\n",
    "p2 = sum(p2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p3]\n",
    "p3 = sum(p3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q1]\n",
    "q1 = sum(q1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q2]\n",
    "q2 = sum(q2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q3]\n",
    "q3 = sum(q3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u1]\n",
    "u1 = sum(u1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u2]\n",
    "u2 = sum(u2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u3]\n",
    "u3 = sum(u3, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 211,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 212,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.25926939792907205\n",
      "310.7907965778942\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## 15s timestamp"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 213,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(20)]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 214,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P2/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "p3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P3/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q1/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q2/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "q3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/Q3/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U1/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u2 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U2/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "u3 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/U3/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 215,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p2]\n",
    "p2 = sum(p2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "p3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in p3]\n",
    "p3 = sum(p3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q1]\n",
    "q1 = sum(q1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q2]\n",
    "q2 = sum(q2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "q3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in q3]\n",
    "q3 = sum(q3, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u1 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u1]\n",
    "u1 = sum(u1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u2 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u2]\n",
    "u2 = sum(u2, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "u3 = [prepare_data(df) for df in u3]\n",
    "u3 = sum(u3, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 216,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 217,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.15609903407231004\n",
      "185.96882724302415\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 100"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 218,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(22)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 219,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 100) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 220,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 221,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.022727424819621245\n",
      "17.917543144597257\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 222,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(141)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 100) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 223,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 224,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.0034973447556556863\n",
      "3.611298909345747\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 225,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(902)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 100) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 226,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 227,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.04305993769981409\n",
      "24.54895004528533\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 228,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(19)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 100) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 229,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 230,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.1113332404242501\n",
      "154.17675845118927\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 231,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(20)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 100) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 232,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "for df in p1[:100]:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 233,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.12367809851197145\n",
      "157.56251980784566\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 150"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def print_and_clear_error():\n",
    "    print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "    print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "    mape_list = []\n",
    "    rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 234,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(22)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 150) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 235,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.039849736891657585\n",
      "32.29903667103372\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 236,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(141)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 150) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 237,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.0032503743219336385\n",
      "3.3381529886125123\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 238,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(902)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 150) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 239,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.02772063903912214\n",
      "10.919837078775918\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 240,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(19)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 150) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 241,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.07907836305885577\n",
      "98.2610209568289\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 242,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(20)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 150) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 243,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.1224501345217447\n",
      "74.75966817515054\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 200"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 244,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(22)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 200) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1[:100]:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 245,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.02087464227267879\n",
      "11.685957553860714\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 246,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(141)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 200) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 247,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.03131215241109015\n",
      "61.483631726788474\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 248,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(902)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 200) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 249,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.026174339888765955\n",
      "16.88541540139596\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 250,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(19)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 200) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 251,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.04670491052907657\n",
      "74.9555393161814\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 252,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(20)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 200) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 253,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.1504878533437745\n",
      "137.33889271736243\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 250"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 254,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(22)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 250) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 255,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.018042233729265188\n",
      "6.372637008992316\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 256,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(141)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/1500/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 250) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 257,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.020490041786970017\n",
      "54.03695749714545\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 258,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(902)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/2000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 250) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 259,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.039300814184051826\n",
      "31.228850467526016\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 260,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(19)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/5000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 250) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 261,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.06969356797673282\n",
      "91.01306563599196\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 262,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "num = [str(i) for i in range(20)]\n",
    "p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/15000/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "p1 = [prepare_data(df, 250) for df in p1]\n",
    "p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "\n",
    "for df in p1:\n",
    "    train_arima(df, max_m=3)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 263,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.13772887510994072\n",
      "135.56045486807156\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 300"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 128,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def learn(all_num, sample_size, ts, max_m=2):\n",
    "    num = [str(i) for i in range(all_num)]\n",
    "    p1 = [read_csv('ics_data_preprocessed/06_Smart_Meter_45/P1/' + str(ts) + '/' + n + '.csv', squeeze=True, parse_dates=['ts'], index_col='ts') for n in num]\n",
    "\n",
    "    p1 = [prepare_data(df, sample_size) for df in p1]\n",
    "    p1 = sum(p1, [])\n",
    "    \n",
    "    if not p1:\n",
    "        print(\"Not enough data\")\n",
    "        return\n",
    "    else:\n",
    "        print(\"Data count: \", len(p1))\n",
    "\n",
    "    for df in p1:\n",
    "        train_arima(df, max_m=max_m)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 195,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  13\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.035870412086767285\n",
      "56.43955308823243\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 300, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 196,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.01926614083443493\n",
      "39.46309774023281\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 300, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 197,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n",
      "0.01994701891743858\n",
      "6.680278415061001\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 300, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 198,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.07585227590294856\n",
      "92.44993776740517\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 300, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 199,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.1369425467941746\n",
      "113.59775205208776\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 300, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 350"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 194,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  10\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.022597912606074105\n",
      "10.841523250266091\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 350, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 193,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  74\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.032981399191221894\n",
      "61.19566371980655\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 350, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 192,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.031054686855860842\n",
      "23.643119968866202\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 350, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 191,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.06942045633809048\n",
      "109.1191827797553\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 350, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 190,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.13881445038407147\n",
      "186.8076532808388\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 350, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 400"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 185,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  8\n",
      "0.03163962265310055\n",
      "24.843526368431263\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 400, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 186,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  51\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.02676593241182609\n",
      "57.79346763601705\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 400, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 187,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.01955951972704367\n",
      "4.569266561187038\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 400, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 188,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.07017125241896327\n",
      "88.38521334215481\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 400, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 189,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.10262465624338908\n",
      "99.86914948198844\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 400, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 450"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 121,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  7\n",
      "0.03669594245786824\n",
      "98.14901986869755\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 450, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 124,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  33\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.011561833899471796\n",
      "21.331805250661287\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 450, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 125,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  1163\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.024711360850436414\n",
      "11.165178221016053\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 450, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 126,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true,
    "jupyter": {
     "outputs_hidden": true
    }
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  262\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.04145872911701352\n",
      "57.721586030043134\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 450, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 127,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  143\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.08035862811586875\n",
      "67.59561592412925\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 450, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 500"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 180,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  6\n",
      "0.015062317455243439\n",
      "6.763239047307859\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 500, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 181,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  20\n",
      "0.03410558717724972\n",
      "45.17720891062846\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 500, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 182,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.02060325216972063\n",
      "9.388391500007003\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 500, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 183,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.08020289495601222\n",
      "114.59409843671362\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 500, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 184,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.11531337992502934\n",
      "123.56388937758337\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 500, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 550"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 175,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  5\n",
      "0.04463562137356567\n",
      "25.430146401518947\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 550, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 176,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  11\n",
      "0.0355371652248534\n",
      "74.91808167313604\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 550, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 177,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.01210996469680587\n",
      "2.9714981264859364\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 550, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 178,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.07003773028076056\n",
      "80.47490229555426\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 550, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 179,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.10606254322361561\n",
      "143.31419893839433\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 550, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 600"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 170,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  4\n",
      "0.010736031664134872\n",
      "6.163095228376584\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 600, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 171,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  6\n",
      "0.00373271140397571\n",
      "7.631813086114083\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 600, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 172,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.01030306583050219\n",
      "2.816851996090661\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 600, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 173,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.04884383050116992\n",
      "69.79186013502158\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 600, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 174,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  90\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.07873925507633427\n",
      "66.200673358604\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 600, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 650"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 165,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  3\n",
      "0.05194511364698492\n",
      "11.050479652116204\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 650, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 166,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  5\n",
      "0.13484705867058006\n",
      "352.03248657135714\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 650, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 167,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n",
      "0.021326393501111766\n",
      "20.545770955130386\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 650, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 168,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.07813178806192428\n",
      "111.70450991980674\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 650, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 169,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  77\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.0920424834829471\n",
      "124.38087722786639\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 650, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 700"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 138,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  3\n",
      "0.01478105691739115\n",
      "4.020914273017367\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 700, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 139,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  3\n",
      "0.007259358457681379\n",
      "15.75464041870804\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 700, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 140,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.019860971674224567\n",
      "8.791518296166226\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 700, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 141,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.0437956822447283\n",
      "60.44782950351768\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 700, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 142,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  67\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.09553607616050915\n",
      "94.55385085660873\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 700, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 750"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 143,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  2\n",
      "0.00916713425927623\n",
      "3.954813505081606\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 750, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 144,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  2\n",
      "0.0032522572298014103\n",
      "5.711140199475415\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 750, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 145,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n",
      "0.01266566915449856\n",
      "2.29328346007472\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 750, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 146,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.06841256787590083\n",
      "91.08970113841063\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 750, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 147,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  59\n",
      "0.059024923736249756\n",
      "68.8023527631057\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 750, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 800"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 148,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  2\n",
      "0.01714596079937446\n",
      "2.737026288607536\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 800, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 149,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  2\n",
      "0.277854103743011\n",
      "306.4679874819427\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(141, 800, 1500, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 150,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n",
      "0.010575896574341603\n",
      "2.278981009610269\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 800, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 151,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.04185443773707624\n",
      "55.4847852103786\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 800, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 152,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  51\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.08987890598459856\n",
      "68.343040306623\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 800, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 850"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 153,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  1\n",
      "0.012705258474515781\n",
      "1.4794812206333345\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 850, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 154,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n",
      "0.01587470534254466\n",
      "3.4955810294204657\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 850, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 155,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n",
      "0.05042899822349947\n",
      "55.632558182301466\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 850, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 156,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  44\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.055229653999954526\n",
      "24.759969130713582\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 850, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 900"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 157,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  1\n",
      "0.007859268589238032\n",
      "7.26707333255691\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 900, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 158,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.012945040667597218\n",
      "2.9808671137933374\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 900, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 159,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  97\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.05568085363009367\n",
      "67.36429851352722\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 900, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 160,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  39\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.06715778479713885\n",
      "40.2869434243135\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 900, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 950"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 161,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  1\n",
      "0.0020212212469643553\n",
      "1.7809878225317233\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 950, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 162,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.017709490481336965\n",
      "6.494154300624287\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 950, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 163,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  88\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.044050042333258876\n",
      "75.87447634590218\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 950, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 164,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  32\n",
      "0.06207865696872941\n",
      "51.891121950369204\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 950, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### length 1000"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 132,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  1\n",
      "0.002997596322281956\n",
      "2.8061415491450616\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(22, 1000, 1000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 135,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  100\n",
      "0.014141253892614667\n",
      "3.3926941836427655\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(902, 1000, 2000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 136,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  80\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2534: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[:, None]\n",
      "/Users/anna/anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/numpy/lib/function_base.py:2535: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in true_divide\n",
      "  c /= stddev[None, :]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "0.04840166171978579\n",
      "72.35612567155965\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(19, 1000, 5000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 137,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Data count:  30\n",
      "0.06687608787512529\n",
      "34.9672491270022\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "learn(20, 1000, 15000, 3)\n",
    "rmse_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(rmse_list) if mape_list[ind] < 1]\n",
    "mape_list = [el for ind, el in enumerate(mape_list) if el < 1] # удалим куски датасетов, на которых алгоритм не сошелся\n",
    "\n",
    "print(sum(mape_list) / len(mape_list))\n",
    "print(sum(rmse_list) / len(rmse_list))\n",
    "mape_list = []\n",
    "rmse_list = []"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
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  "language_info": {
   "codemirror_mode": {
    "name": "ipython",
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